Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  31.5  31.3  34.1  35.9  43.4  41.5  33.1  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  56.0   1.0  13.0  20.0   7.0  13.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -10.0  14.0  15.0  -4.0   9.0   2.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   6.0  10.0  12.0  10.0  -2.0   3.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP182026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  31.5  31.3  34.1  35.9  43.4  41.5  33.1  N  N  N  F  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   6.0  10.0  12.0  10.0  -2.0   3.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%