Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  31.2  31.2  31.6  39.5  43.8  34.4  25.6  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  57.0  58.0  19.0   8.0  20.0  56.0  14.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  14.0  14.0   0.0 -22.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0  11.0  22.0  22.0   4.0   0.0   4.0  U  N  U VU VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP182026 260822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  31.2  31.2  31.6  39.5  43.8  34.4  25.6  N  N  N  N  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0  11.0  22.0  22.0   4.0   0.0   4.0  F  N  F VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%