Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.3  27.3  31.2  39.0  38.3  37.4  31.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  59.0  18.0  22.0   7.0   8.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   4.0   5.0  -8.0  13.0  -9.0  32.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  79.0  83.0  78.0  80.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   8.0   7.0  11.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.4%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       13.3%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        5.1%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        9.1%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP182026 260823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  27.3  27.3  31.2  39.0  38.3  37.4  31.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  79.0  83.0  78.0  80.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   8.0   7.0  11.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%