Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  29.0  31.2  34.4  39.4  42.4  33.8  25.1  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0   4.0  22.0  15.0   8.0  22.0  59.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   5.0  -8.0  -9.0   2.0  19.0  37.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   7.0  14.0  15.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        9.8%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.6%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP182026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  29.0  31.2  34.4  39.4  42.4  33.8  25.1  N  N  N  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   7.0  14.0  15.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%