Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  25.0  24.4  29.7  39.7  36.8  32.1  28.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  59.0  14.0  16.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  35.0  24.0  15.0  31.0  33.0  40.0  55.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.8%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       16.5%       10.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.4%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        7.2%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.8%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        9.8%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.2%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP182026 260823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  25.0  24.4  29.7  39.7  36.8  32.1  28.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%