Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  34.1  39.2  42.5  41.0  32.0  31.9  32.1  N  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  58.0  56.0  17.0  16.0  53.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  33.0  40.0  40.0  20.0  22.0  35.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  72.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.7%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP182026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  34.1  39.2  42.5  41.0  32.0  31.9  32.1  N  F  F VF VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  72.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%