Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  45.1  43.5  41.3  29.2  33.1  40.2  49.1 VU VU VU VU  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  17.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  52.0  50.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  36.0  23.0  38.0  26.0  29.0  20.0  36.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  73.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP182026 260825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.1  45.1  43.5  41.3  29.2  33.1  40.2  49.1 VF VF VF VF  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  73.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%