Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  42.8  38.3  31.7  19.2  27.3  26.7  24.9 VU VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  23.0  39.0  41.0  13.0   4.0  14.0  29.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.2%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP182026 260825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  42.8  38.3  31.7  19.2  27.3  26.7  24.9 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%