Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.9  39.6  32.0  22.2  23.4  27.4  36.1  36.1 VU  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   4.0  49.0  46.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  31.0  25.0  16.0  21.0  42.0 -14.0 -14.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP182026 260825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    108.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.9  39.6  32.0  22.2  23.4  27.4  36.1  36.1 VF  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%