Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  33.1  22.0  21.0  36.2  36.2  36.2  36.2  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  25.0  16.0  21.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP182026 260825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  33.1  22.0  21.0  36.2  36.2  36.2  36.2  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%