Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  25.6  21.9  18.2  27.4  35.4  28.6  41.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  46.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  18.0  12.0   6.0  19.0  24.0  42.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.3  72.7  73.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.7%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        3.9%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 WP182026 260826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  25.6  21.9  18.2  27.4  35.4  28.6  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.3  72.7  73.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%