Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  15.5  17.8  27.1  20.9  20.9  20.9  20.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  46.0  45.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  24.0   7.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       10.5%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       16.0%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        5.0%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        8.5%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        4.8%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%       17.8%       14.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 WP182026 260826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  15.5  17.8  27.1  20.9  20.9  20.9  20.9  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%