Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       15.4%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        5.5%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       28.8%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%       12.5%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       14.6%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%       12.1%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%       36.7%       24.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 WP182026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%