Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    113.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  34.1  35.7  41.1  44.5  34.6  34.6  34.6  N  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  12.0  27.0  37.0  44.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.2%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%       10.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        8.8%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 WP182026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    113.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  34.1  35.7  41.1  44.5  34.6  34.6  34.6  N  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%