Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182026 260827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.1  32.4  37.0  34.9  39.4  37.3  47.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  49.0  47.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  12.0  14.0  23.0  21.0  38.0  40.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   1.0   2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       12.8%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       18.8%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        6.8%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        4.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        7.9%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP182026 260827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.1  32.4  37.0  34.9  39.4  37.3  47.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  66.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   5.0   1.0   2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%