Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  34.4  38.8  39.2  43.2  30.1  40.4  44.9  U  U  U  U VU  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  20.0  13.0  65.0  96.0 100.0  88.0  13.0  U  U  U  N  F  F  F  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  88.0  49.0  29.0  92.0   0.0  71.0  47.0  N  F  N  N  F  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0 -15.0 -12.0 -21.0   3.0  N  N  F  F VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.6%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        5.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        2.1%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.4%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        5.7%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP192026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  34.4  38.8  39.2  43.2  30.1  40.4  44.9  N  F  F  F VF  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0 -15.0 -12.0 -21.0   3.0  N  N  U  U VU  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%