Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192026 260822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  39.4  37.7  41.0  42.0  32.6  38.2  46.5  U  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  12.0  66.0  89.0  95.0  65.0  17.0  U  U  U  N  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  49.0  28.0 121.0  22.0  38.0  50.0  30.0  F  N  U  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0 -15.0 -13.0 -12.0  19.0  N  F  F  F VF VF  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.5%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.7%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        2.1%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        4.1%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP192026 260822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  39.4  37.7  41.0  42.0  32.6  38.2  46.5  F  F  F VF VF  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0  -8.0 -15.0 -13.0 -12.0  19.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%