Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192026 260823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  32.7  35.1  41.2  34.7  37.6  42.2  42.2  U  U  U VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0  18.0  11.0  65.0  87.0  11.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  40.0  80.0 152.0  22.0   8.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N VF  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  71.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -7.0 -16.0 -14.0 -23.0  -9.0  -9.0  F  N  F VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.2%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP192026 260823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  32.7  35.1  41.2  34.7  37.6  42.2  42.2  F  F  F VF  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  71.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -7.0 -16.0 -14.0 -23.0  -9.0  -9.0  U  N  U VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%