Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  35.1  41.2  42.1  35.3  39.4  42.4  43.8  U  U VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  12.0  67.0  78.0  88.0  67.0   2.0  33.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  81.0 152.0  81.0  -2.0  57.0  50.0  66.0  N  N VF  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  76.0  71.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0 -16.0 -19.0 -12.0 -18.0  -4.0  16.0  N  F VF VF  F VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.9%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP192026 260823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  35.1  41.2  42.1  35.3  39.4  42.4  43.8  F  F VF VF  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  76.0  71.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0 -16.0 -19.0 -12.0 -18.0  -4.0  16.0  N  U VU VU  U VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%