Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  47.8  44.9  36.0  39.6  43.5  43.5  43.5  U VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  65.0  78.0  88.0  65.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0 130.0  33.0  15.0  45.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  F  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -15.0 -25.0 -12.0 -23.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  F VF VF  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP192026 260823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  47.8  44.9  36.0  39.6  43.5  43.5  43.5  F VF VF  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -15.0 -25.0 -12.0 -23.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%