Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192026 260824 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 138.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.5 41.8 42.9 47.8 53.1 53.6 53.6 53.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 14.0 15.0 20.0 28.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 42.0 27.0 62.0 1.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 N N U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 66.0 69.0 76.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -10.0 -6.0 -18.0 -18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VF F F VF VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.78 WP192026 260824 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 138.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.5 41.8 42.9 47.8 53.1 53.6 53.6 53.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 66.0 69.0 76.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -10.0 -6.0 -18.0 -18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VU U U VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%