Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192026 260825 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 138.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.1 44.4 48.6 50.5 52.9 52.9 52.9 52.9 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 71.0 15.0 21.0 22.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 55.0 63.0 33.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 U N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -14.0 -8.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 F F VF F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.72 WP192026 260825 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 138.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.1 44.4 48.6 50.5 52.9 52.9 52.9 52.9 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -14.0 -8.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%