Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192026 260825 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 136.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.7 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.40 WP192026 260825 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 136.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.7 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.1% 0.1% 0.6%