Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192026 260825 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 135.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 WP192026 260825 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.80 135.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 -22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.8% 0.1% 4.5%