Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    161.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  14.6  15.0  18.7  10.4  13.1  14.0  21.9  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  85.0  87.0  88.0  92.0  99.0 106.0 111.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  82.0  68.0  88.0  75.0  80.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.2%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       17.1%       36.5%       26.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%       17.1%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       16.1%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       16.1%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       30.5%       58.4%       44.5%
 55kt / 36h       22.7%       36.8%       29.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       52.7%       51.9%
 70kt / 48h       38.2%       49.7%       44.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       79.5%       71.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP202026 260826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    161.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  14.6  15.0  18.7  10.4  13.1  14.0  21.9  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  72.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%