Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  15.8  20.2  13.7  11.0  15.8  23.7  29.4  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  87.0  88.0  90.0  96.0 105.0 111.0 114.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  66.0  89.0  82.0  78.0  80.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   8.0  17.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.7%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       19.2%       37.2%       28.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       17.9%       14.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       17.7%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       17.7%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%       55.9%       45.4%
 55kt / 36h       25.3%       33.5%       29.4%
 55kt / 48h       50.6%       48.6%       49.6%
 70kt / 48h       36.8%       41.2%       39.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       64.3%       63.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP202026 260826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  15.8  20.2  13.7  11.0  15.8  23.7  29.4  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   8.0  17.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%