Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  19.2  14.9  11.2  14.2  12.6  16.4  17.4  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  87.0  88.0  89.0  95.0 103.0 109.0 113.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  56.0  47.0  65.0  87.0  48.0  24.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        4.1%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.8%       39.0%       28.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       18.6%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       18.6%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       18.6%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h       34.9%       57.0%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h       26.3%       32.3%       29.3%
 55kt / 48h       43.3%       46.6%       44.9%
 70kt / 48h       31.0%       39.0%       35.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       71.9%       67.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP202026 260826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    161.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  19.2  14.9  11.2  14.2  12.6  16.4  17.4  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%