Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260827 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 161.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 15.1 15.5 15.7 12.1 11.4 15.8 23.1 N F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 89.0 90.0 91.0 94.0 102.0 107.0 110.0 120.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 61.0 71.0 79.0 46.0 58.0 30.0 47.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 67.0 66.0 60.0 56.0 57.0 66.0 N N N N N U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 10.0 24.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 2.9% 2.1% 25kt / 24h 15.0% 33.7% 24.3% 30kt / 24h 7.6% 15.9% 11.8% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 14.0% 7.9% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 14.0% 7.9% 45kt / 36h 24.4% 46.8% 35.6% 55kt / 36h 17.1% 23.8% 20.5% 55kt / 48h 42.0% 44.3% 43.2% 70kt / 48h 26.9% 32.5% 29.7% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 65.6% 64.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 WP202026 260827 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 161.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 15.1 15.5 15.7 12.1 11.4 15.8 23.1 N U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 67.0 66.0 60.0 56.0 57.0 66.0 N N N N N F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 7.0 10.0 24.0 N N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%