Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.7  14.1  15.3  11.1  12.2  20.8  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0 102.0 104.0  84.0  50.0 185.0 185.0 182.0  F  F  F  N  N VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  71.0  80.0  73.0  32.0  35.0  36.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  59.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   8.0  10.0   9.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        6.8%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       31.3%       51.1%       41.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       31.3%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%       31.1%       19.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       31.1%       19.0%
 45kt / 36h       36.9%       60.0%       48.4%
 55kt / 36h       26.7%       39.3%       33.0%
 55kt / 48h       45.7%       55.5%       50.6%
 70kt / 48h       33.2%       44.1%       38.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       74.3%       68.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP202026 260827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    162.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.7  14.1  15.3  11.1  12.2  20.8  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  59.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   8.0  10.0   9.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%