Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    163.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.4  16.2  13.6  13.8  19.0  27.3  26.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  97.0 101.0 104.0 108.0 114.0 117.0 104.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  72.0  51.0  13.0  28.0 -10.0  77.0  32.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  55.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   7.0  14.0  22.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.6%       22.5%       24.0%
 25kt / 24h       57.8%       72.2%       65.0%
 30kt / 24h       48.3%       61.9%       55.1%
 35kt / 24h       38.2%       61.9%       50.1%
 40kt / 24h       38.2%       61.9%       50.1%
 45kt / 36h       58.9%       78.3%       68.6%
 55kt / 36h       49.3%       63.9%       56.6%
 55kt / 48h       56.6%       60.6%       58.6%
 70kt / 48h       42.3%       52.1%       47.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       58.2%       60.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP202026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    163.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.4  16.2  13.6  13.8  19.0  27.3  26.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  55.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   7.0  14.0  22.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%