Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260828 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 166.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 22.4 21.4 24.0 21.8 28.3 24.2 42.2 N N N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 110.0 110.0 111.0 115.0 122.0 122.0 118.0 110.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 52.0 38.0 46.0 0.0 40.0 25.0 49.0 N N N N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 65.0 62.0 61.0 50.0 U U U N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 17.0 23.0 31.0 32.0 43.0 24.0 6.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 54.8% 38.5% 46.7% 25kt / 24h 71.8% 76.6% 74.2% 30kt / 24h 66.5% 73.6% 70.1% 35kt / 24h 57.3% 73.6% 65.4% 40kt / 24h 40.0% 72.8% 56.4% 45kt / 36h 57.8% 60.8% 59.3% 55kt / 36h 39.3% 40.7% 40.0% 55kt / 48h 46.1% 44.7% 45.4% 70kt / 48h 26.8% 16.0% 21.4% 65kt / 72h 57.9% 16.3% 37.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.86 WP202026 260828 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 166.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 22.4 21.4 24.0 21.8 28.3 24.2 42.2 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 65.0 62.0 61.0 50.0 F F F N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 17.0 23.0 31.0 32.0 43.0 24.0 6.0 VF F VF VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%