Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260828 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 167.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 24.9 27.3 29.4 35.1 31.9 38.4 44.3 N N N N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 110.0 111.0 113.0 116.0 121.0 120.0 115.0 113.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 69.0 56.0 53.0 54.0 51.0 44.0 29.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 60.0 64.0 65.0 65.0 62.0 52.0 U N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 38.0 22.0 11.0 12.0 U U U U VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 38.5% 32.1% 35.3% 25kt / 24h 64.7% 71.0% 67.8% 30kt / 24h 50.0% 67.4% 58.7% 35kt / 24h 43.2% 67.4% 55.3% 40kt / 24h 23.8% 62.5% 43.2% 45kt / 36h 44.2% 44.4% 44.3% 55kt / 36h 26.4% 22.5% 24.4% 55kt / 48h 45.8% 27.8% 36.8% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 7.3% 16.1% 65kt / 72h 41.3% 7.6% 24.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.86 WP202026 260828 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 167.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 24.9 27.3 29.4 35.1 31.9 38.4 44.3 N N N N F N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 60.0 64.0 65.0 65.0 62.0 52.0 F N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 38.0 22.0 11.0 12.0 F F F F VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%