Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.7  27.9  23.9  31.9  33.7  47.5  37.6  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 119.0 122.0 124.0 118.0 116.0 117.0 116.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  46.0  -2.0  12.0  20.0  43.0  30.0  97.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  54.0  52.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  43.0  39.0  31.0  41.0  18.0  13.0   3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%       16.6%       16.3%
 25kt / 24h       48.3%       54.7%       51.5%
 30kt / 24h       32.7%       46.7%       39.7%
 35kt / 24h       24.3%       46.7%       35.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       41.1%       25.3%
 45kt / 36h       33.2%       29.4%       31.3%
 55kt / 36h       18.7%       12.1%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       41.5%       19.6%       30.6%
 70kt / 48h       21.5%        3.2%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       42.9%        3.8%       23.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.28

 WP202026 260829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.7  27.9  23.9  31.9  33.7  47.5  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  54.0  52.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  43.0  39.0  31.0  41.0  18.0  13.0   3.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%