Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260829 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 168.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 29.2 25.3 33.4 21.8 27.8 34.3 45.3 U N N U N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 117.0 120.0 118.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 80.0 63.0 49.0 24.0 24.0 22.0 12.0 F N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 63.0 66.0 67.0 66.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 18.0 36.0 37.0 10.0 7.0 7.0 11.0 VU VU VU VU U N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.3% 16.1% 33.7% 25kt / 24h 56.8% 47.3% 52.1% 30kt / 24h 52.3% 38.1% 45.2% 35kt / 24h 40.6% 38.1% 39.3% 40kt / 24h 34.3% 38.1% 36.2% 45kt / 36h 43.2% 20.5% 31.9% 55kt / 36h 25.9% 6.9% 16.4% 55kt / 48h 46.3% 16.5% 31.4% 70kt / 48h 24.9% 3.1% 14.0% 65kt / 72h 36.9% 3.6% 20.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.28 WP202026 260829 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 168.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 29.2 25.3 33.4 21.8 27.8 34.3 45.3 F N N F N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 63.0 66.0 67.0 66.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 18.0 36.0 37.0 10.0 7.0 7.0 11.0 VF VF VF VF F N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8%