Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260829 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.30 168.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 23.6 25.8 29.0 36.4 46.3 56.3 50.2 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 117.0 117.0 115.0 116.0 117.0 117.0 116.0 127.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 13.0 30.0 21.0 56.0 62.0 68.0 66.0 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 61.0 55.0 49.0 43.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 37.0 29.0 38.0 29.0 16.0 -7.0 -30.0 67.0 VU VU VU VU U F VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 36.8% 15.6% 26.2% 25kt / 24h 40.6% 37.4% 39.0% 30kt / 24h 39.4% 30.2% 34.8% 35kt / 24h 28.4% 30.2% 29.3% 40kt / 24h 22.5% 30.2% 26.3% 45kt / 36h 32.2% 10.2% 21.2% 55kt / 36h 18.5% 2.8% 10.7% 55kt / 48h 29.8% 5.7% 17.8% 70kt / 48h 11.8% 0.7% 6.2% 65kt / 72h 24.4% 0.7% 12.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.24 WP202026 260829 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.30 168.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 23.6 25.8 29.0 36.4 46.3 56.3 50.2 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 61.0 55.0 49.0 43.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 37.0 29.0 38.0 29.0 16.0 -7.0 -30.0 67.0 VF VF VF VF F U VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7%