Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 169.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 37.0 38.2 39.5 43.8 23.3 51.3 51.3 U U U U VU N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 126.0 128.0 128.0 126.0 117.0 100.0 98.0 98.0 F VF VF F F F F F Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 69.0 44.0 44.0 35.0 61.0 67.0 67.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 70.0 71.0 70.0 55.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 41.0 50.0 36.0 31.0 17.0 19.0 -49.0 -49.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 4.8% 5.4% 5.1% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 2.2% 2.6% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 0.9% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 12.4% 1.2% 6.8% 70kt / 48h 3.0% 0.1% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 27.7% 0.5% 14.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.30 WP202026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.70 169.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 37.0 38.2 39.5 43.8 23.3 51.3 51.3 F F F F VF N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 70.0 71.0 70.0 55.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 41.0 50.0 36.0 31.0 17.0 19.0 -49.0 -49.0 VF VF VF VF F VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.5% 2.6% 3.5%