Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202026 260830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    165.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  49.3  55.3  63.1  76.7  43.7  27.3  21.5  U VU VU VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 112.0 111.0 110.0 116.0 110.0 112.0 111.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0 110.0  96.0  95.0  65.0  62.0  36.0  14.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  49.0  45.0  47.0  45.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  29.0  55.0  59.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       35.8%        0.7%       18.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP202026 260830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.50    165.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  49.3  55.3  63.1  76.7  43.7  27.3  21.5  F VF VF VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  49.0  45.0  47.0  45.0  53.0  53.0  56.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  29.0  55.0  59.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       36.8%        1.5%       19.2%