Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260831 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 165.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 31.3 45.1 65.5 80.8 57.0 28.1 26.4 U U VU VU VU VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 110.0 106.0 106.0 117.0 113.0 106.0 105.0 106.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 0.0 20.0 10.0 28.0 33.0 80.0 75.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 53.0 65.0 61.0 61.0 U VU U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -14.0 -42.0 -64.0 -39.0 -16.0 24.0 28.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 15.3% 1.6% 8.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP202026 260831 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.70 165.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 31.3 45.1 65.5 80.8 57.0 28.1 26.4 F N VF VF VF VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 53.0 65.0 61.0 61.0 F VF F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -14.0 -42.0 -64.0 -39.0 -16.0 24.0 28.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.8% 0.1% 5.0%