Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260831 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 165.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 60.7 53.8 71.1 80.6 81.9 53.2 31.3 13.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU U F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 107.0 105.0 113.0 114.0 113.0 106.0 107.0 90.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 140.0 106.0 64.0 82.0 -6.0 -1.0 -10.0 -46.0 VF F N N U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 47.0 52.0 46.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 VU VU U VU N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 67.0 46.0 -3.0 9.0 17.0 11.0 -29.0 -20.0 VU VU N U U U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 3.1% 0.2% 1.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP202026 260831 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 165.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 60.7 53.8 71.1 80.6 81.9 53.2 31.3 13.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 47.0 52.0 46.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 VF VF F VF N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 67.0 46.0 -3.0 9.0 17.0 11.0 -29.0 -20.0 VF VF N F F F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 74.3% 5.8% 40.1%