Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202026 260831 12UTC Storm Located at : 40.20 166.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.7 62.4 79.5 81.9 71.6 33.5 17.2 13.0 VU VU VU VU VU U F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 106.0 117.0 110.0 98.0 111.0 111.0 113.0 89.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 128.0 110.0 82.0 21.0 24.0 0.0 -20.0 12.0 F F N U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 48.0 44.0 42.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 64.0 VU U VU VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 73.0 57.0 -6.0 -23.0 -2.0 1.0 -13.0 -19.0 VU VU F VF N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 7.5% 0.6% 4.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP202026 260831 12UTC Storm Located at : 40.20 166.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.7 62.4 79.5 81.9 71.6 33.5 17.2 13.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 48.0 44.0 42.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 64.0 VF F VF VF F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 73.0 57.0 -6.0 -23.0 -2.0 1.0 -13.0 -19.0 VF VF U VU N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 97.4% 10.5% 53.9%