Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  35.6  33.7  40.4  49.9  47.8  47.9  29.9  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 109.0 109.0 108.0 108.0 107.0 107.0 104.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  72.0 123.0 100.0  55.0  95.0  15.0  62.0  F  N  F  F  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -3.0   7.0  12.0   0.0  14.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.3%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       31.1%       25.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.1%       13.4%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       12.3%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        9.8%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       22.9%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        7.3%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       30.4%        7.3%       18.9%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%        4.1%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.1%       11.7%       25.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP212026 260827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  35.6  33.7  40.4  49.9  47.8  47.9  29.9  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  -3.0   7.0  12.0   0.0  14.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%