Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260827 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 168.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 33.8 38.8 45.7 46.4 52.8 40.1 36.2 U U U VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 109.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.0 107.0 106.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 72.0 124.0 100.0 98.0 68.0 111.0 -19.0 41.0 N F F F N F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 59.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 8.0 13.0 6.0 22.0 10.0 12.0 2.0 N U U N VU U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.2% 3.9% 5.6% 25kt / 24h 18.6% 21.3% 19.9% 30kt / 24h 10.9% 7.6% 9.2% 35kt / 24h 3.8% 6.8% 5.3% 40kt / 24h 2.3% 6.7% 4.5% 45kt / 36h 9.4% 11.9% 10.7% 55kt / 36h 4.0% 2.9% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 26.8% 3.5% 15.1% 70kt / 48h 9.5% 1.5% 5.5% 65kt / 72h 30.5% 5.2% 17.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP212026 260827 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 168.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 33.8 38.8 45.7 46.4 52.8 40.1 36.2 F F F VF VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 59.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 8.0 13.0 6.0 22.0 10.0 12.0 2.0 N F F N VF F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%