Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    168.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.9  40.2  46.3  50.7  44.3  20.4  20.1  U  U  U VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 108.0 107.0 107.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  94.0 121.0  85.0  48.0   4.0  48.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  21.0  18.0   8.0  13.0  13.0   4.0   9.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.2%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       19.7%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%        7.4%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        6.7%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        5.5%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       10.6%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        2.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.5%        3.3%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        1.2%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       43.1%       10.6%       26.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP212026 260827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    168.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.9  40.2  46.3  50.7  44.3  20.4  20.1  F  F  F VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  21.0  18.0   8.0  13.0  13.0   4.0   9.0  F VF VF  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%