Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260828 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 166.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.7 42.0 41.2 39.0 18.9 16.8 28.3 41.3 VU VU VU U N F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 109.0 109.0 107.0 106.0 104.0 104.0 105.0 110.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 67.0 79.0 56.0 28.0 32.0 58.0 53.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 53.0 N N U U N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 23.0 15.0 13.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 U VU U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 2.0% 3.7% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 55kt / 36h 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 28.4% 3.6% 16.0% 70kt / 48h 11.1% 0.9% 6.0% 65kt / 72h 47.8% 4.9% 26.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.84 WP212026 260828 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 166.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.7 42.0 41.2 39.0 18.9 16.8 28.3 41.3 VF VF VF F N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 53.0 N N F F N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 23.0 15.0 13.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 F VF F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%