Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260828 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.20 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 36.9 33.7 23.7 19.4 19.5 28.8 36.3 U U U N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 108.0 107.0 107.0 106.0 105.0 105.0 109.0 110.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 84.0 60.0 52.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 11.0 F N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 60.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 N U N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 18.0 19.0 12.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 VU VU VU U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 8.6% 13.4% 11.0% 30kt / 24h 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 4.0% 2.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 3.5% 2.1% 45kt / 36h 11.2% 12.4% 11.8% 55kt / 36h 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 55kt / 48h 44.3% 11.0% 27.7% 70kt / 48h 24.0% 3.4% 13.7% 65kt / 72h 57.6% 11.2% 34.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.88 WP212026 260828 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.20 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 36.9 33.7 23.7 19.4 19.5 28.8 36.3 F F F N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 60.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 N F N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 18.0 19.0 12.0 7.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 VF VF VF F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%