Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    165.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  21.3  18.5  21.0  15.1  20.7  25.1  35.4  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 117.0 115.0 119.0 125.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  38.0  19.0  10.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   9.0   6.0   6.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       19.0%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        7.6%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        6.2%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.5%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.0%       21.9%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%        6.9%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       17.1%       33.3%
 70kt / 48h       25.6%        7.3%       16.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       21.9%       42.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP212026 260829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    165.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  21.3  18.5  21.0  15.1  20.7  25.1  35.4  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   9.0   6.0   6.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%