Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    165.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  19.4  20.1  26.1  29.9  32.6  35.3  37.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 115.0 115.0 116.0 116.0 117.0 126.0 124.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  58.0  65.0  20.0  41.0  53.0  65.0  88.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  52.6  53.8  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   2.0  -1.0  17.0  15.0  17.0  19.0  13.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        2.8%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       24.9%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%       11.1%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        9.3%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        8.4%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.6%       21.3%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        8.5%        6.5%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h       48.4%       12.1%       30.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%        4.5%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       14.8%       38.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 WP212026 260829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    165.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  19.4  20.1  26.1  29.9  32.6  35.3  37.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  52.6  53.8  55.0  55.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   2.0  -1.0  17.0  15.0  17.0  19.0  13.0  F  N  N  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%