Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 164.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 24.6 33.2 39.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 N N U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 116.0 116.0 117.0 117.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 30.0 14.0 37.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 VU N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 67.0 64.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 10.0 15.0 11.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 N U U U VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 1.3% 5.3% 3.3% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.6% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 2.7% 4.9% 3.8% 55kt / 36h 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 34.5% 4.3% 19.4% 70kt / 48h 16.3% 1.5% 8.9% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 15.6% 39.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.86 WP212026 260829 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 164.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 24.6 33.2 39.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 N N F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 67.0 64.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 10.0 15.0 11.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 N F F F VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%