Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260830 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.90 164.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 30.0 30.9 28.9 39.5 43.4 41.1 33.6 N N U N U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 112.0 112.0 111.0 110.0 110.0 114.0 120.0 122.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 33.0 14.0 49.0 8.0 68.0 178.0 116.0 N N U N U N VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 8.0 3.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 -4.0 U U N U U U U F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 5.0% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 1.4% 4.5% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 27.7% 2.3% 15.0% 70kt / 48h 11.0% 0.7% 5.9% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 7.8% 35.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 WP212026 260830 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.90 164.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 30.0 30.9 28.9 39.5 43.4 41.1 33.6 N N N N F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 8.0 3.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 9.0 -4.0 F F N F F F F U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%