Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  30.8  31.4  33.9  43.1  38.4  39.9  49.4  N  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 111.0 111.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 112.0 124.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  14.0  49.0  52.0  25.0 117.0 155.0 119.0  N  U  N  N  U  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  42.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   5.0   9.0  -6.0 -15.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        2.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h       21.8%        1.4%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        0.3%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%        3.8%       33.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP212026 260830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  30.8  31.4  33.9  43.1  38.4  39.9  49.4  N  N  N  F VF  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  42.0  F  N  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   5.0   9.0  -6.0 -15.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%